By: Jerromie S. Walters
Liberia’s next legislative and presidential elections will be conducted less than 30 days from now, and especially during this campaign period, the political euphoria has been engulfed with engagements (endorsements, rallies, campaign launch, etc…) by various political parties, which many of their supporters have used to predict the outcome of the October 10, 2023, presidential elections, due to their ability to assemble thousands, if not hundreds.
Like those from the former ruling establishment often say, “The people have spoken, the footballing president is out”, while those from the ruling establishment usually say, “12 years”, judging from how they both, including several other political parties that have proven their numerical strength at political gatherings, which they managed to gather hundreds on different occasions.
But with what Liberians have seen since the beginning of the campaign, it’s difficult and unrealistic to point out one out of the many presidential candidates, that might win the October 10, 2023, elections, especially if said argument is backed by said candidate’s ability to pull out an astonishing number of individuals at their rally (ies).
Though they have managed to conglomerate a lot of their supporters at different events, the strength factor was mainly proven by the ruling party on February 4th, 2023,July 17, 2023, August 8, 2023, and September 7, 2023, as their supporters vividly demonstrated their indescribable love for their political leader and the party.
Accordingly, the former ruling Unity Party (UP) that lost 14 out of the 15 counties of Liberia during the 2017 presidential election, has also demonstrated their numerical strength on countless occasions lately, in and out of Montserrado County (Grand Bassa, Nimba, etc..).
Also, the Collaborating Political Parties (CPP) of Mr. Alexander B. Cummings who was termed as a “Newcomer” in 2017, is also among the different parties that have gathered hundreds and thousands inMontserrado, Grand Bassa, and other parts of Liberia.
Though the major contenders have displayed their strength in assembling thousands, it can not be used to determine the outcome of the pending elections, especially when it has not been done by a single party.
Besides, though it is a known fact that the size of a candidate’s rally crowd can be an indicator of their popularity and level of support, it is also not a reliable predictor of the outcome of the election.
Interestingly, there are many other factors that come into play in determining the outcome of an election, including voter turnout, campaign strategies, political endorsements, and the overall political climate. Ultimately, the only way to determine the winner of an election is through the actual voting process.
While a large crowd at a candidate’s rally can be an indicator of their popularity and level of support, it is important to note that the size of the crowd alone cannot determine the outcome of an election. There are several reasons why the crowd at a candidate’s rally may not accurately reflect their chances of success at the polls.
Rally attendees are often die-hard supporters who are already committed to the candidate’s cause, and may not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the wider population. In addition, rally attendees may not be representative of key demographic groups that are crucial to winning elections.
There are many factors that can influence voter behavior, including campaign messaging, political endorsements, and the overall political climate.
Thirdly, the crowd at a candidate’s rally may not accurately reflect the level of support for the candidate in different regions or constituencies. Elections are won and lost on a local level, and a candidate’s level of support may vary widely across different regions or constituencies. A large rally crowd in one area may not necessarily translate into support in other areas, where the candidate may face different challenges or opposition.
While a large rally crowd can generate enthusiasm and excitement among supporters, it may not necessarily translate into support from key stakeholders who have the power to influence the outcome of an election.
Elections are complex and multifaceted events that are influenced by a wide range of factors, including campaign strategies, political endorsements, and the overall political climate. While a large rally crowd can generate momentum and enthusiasm, it is ultimately the voters who have the power to determine the outcome of an election.
Positive impacts
The size of a candidate’s rally crowd can be an indicator of their popularity and level of support, and there are several ways in which the crowd at a party/candidate’s rally can influence the outcome of an election.
The crowd at a candidate’s rally can provide valuable feedback on their campaign message and strategy. This can help to ensure that their message resonates with voters and increases their chances of success at the polls.
Also, the crowd at a candidate’s rally can provide a sense of momentum and energy that can be contagious. A candidate with a large and enthusiastic rally crowd can create a sense of excitement and optimism that can inspire more people to get involved in the campaign and support the candidate. This can help to build a groundswell of support that can carry the candidate to victory on election day.
Moreover, it can play an important role in shaping the outcome of an election. By generating media attention, providing valuable feedback, creating momentum and energy, and building a sense of community and belonging, the crowd at a candidate’s rally can help to increase their chances of success at the polls.
